High-order Accurate Finite-Volume Formulations for the Pressure Gradient Force in Layered Ocean Models

Discretisation of the horizontal pressure gradient force in layered ocean models is a challenging task, with non-trivial interactions between the thermodynamics of the fluid and the geometry of the layers often leading to numerical difficulties. We present two new finite-volume schemes for the pressure gradient operator designed to address these issues. In each case, the horizontal acceleration is computed as an integration of the contact pressure force that acts along the perimeter of an associated momentum control-volume. A pair of new schemes are developed by exploring different control-volume geometries. Non-linearities in the underlying equation-of-state definitions and thermodynamic profiles are treated using a high-order accurate numerical integration framework, designed to preserve hydrostatic balance in a non-linear manner. Numerical experiments show that the new methods achieve high levels of consistency, maintaining hydrostatic and thermobaric equilibrium in the presence of strongly-sloping layer geometries, non-linear equations-of-state and non-uniform vertical stratification profiles. These results suggest that the new pressure gradient formulations may be appropriate for general circulation models that employ hybrid vertical coordinates andor terrain-following representations

At what sample size do correlations stabilize?

Sample correlations converge to the population value with increasing sample size, but the estimates are often inaccurate in small samples. In this report we use Monte-Carlo simulations to determine the critical sample size from which on the magnitude of a correlation can be expected to be stable. The necessary sample size to achieve stable estimates for correlations depends on the effect size, the width of the corridor of stability (i.e., a corridor around the true value where deviations are tolerated), and the requested confidence that the trajectory does not leave this corridor any more. Results indicate that in typical scenarios the sample size should approach 250 for stable estimates

Habitable Climate Scenarios for Proxima Centauri b With a Dynamic Ocean

The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that an Earth-like Proxima b could harbor a small dayside region of surface liquid water at fairly warm temperatures despite its weak instellation. We present the first 3-dimensional climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean area because of possible dynamic regime transitions. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline present ocean, Proxima b could conceivably be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet dominated by halophilic life. For an ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance, a permanent tropical waterbelt exists for moderate eccentricity. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may also be a model for the habitability of planets receiving similar instellation from slightly cooler or warmer stars, e.g., in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.Comment: Submitted to Astrobiology; 38 pages, 12 figures, 5 table

Comparison of Forced ENSO-Like Hydrological Expressions in Simulations of the Preindustrial and Mid-Holocene

Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions

Modeling Insights into Deuterium Excess as an Indicator of Water Vapor Source Conditions

Deuterium excess (d) is interpreted in conventional paleoclimate reconstructions as a tracer of oceanic source region conditions, such as temperature, where precipitation originates. Previous studies have adopted co-isotopic approaches to estimate past changes in both site and oceanic source temperatures for ice core sites using empirical relationships derived from conceptual distillation models, particularly Mixed Cloud Isotopic Models (MCIMs). However, the relationship between d and oceanic surface conditions remains unclear in past contexts. We investigate this climate-isotope relationship for sites in Greenland and Antarctica using multiple simulations of the water isotope-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE-R general circulation model and apply a novel suite of model vapor source distribution (VSD) tracers to assess d as a proxy for source temperature variability under a range of climatic conditions. Simulated average source temperatures determined by the VSDs are compared to synthetic source temperature estimates calculated using MCIM equations linking d to source region conditions. We show that although deuterium excess is generally a faithful tracer of source temperatures as estimated by the MCIM approach, large discrepancies in the isotope-climate relationship occur around Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum simulation, when precipitation seasonality and moisture source regions were notably different from present. This identified sensitivity in d as a source temperature proxy suggests that quantitative climate reconstructions from deuterium excess should be treated with caution for some sites when boundary conditions are significantly different from the present day. Also, the exclusion of the influence of humidity and other evaporative source changes in MCIM regressions may be a limitation of quantifying source temperature fluctuations from deuterium excess in some instances

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a 3-Dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of Solar System and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2 (Schmidt et al. 2014), is used to simulate modern and 21st Century Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (slowly rotating to more rapidly rotating than modern Earth, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the Solar System such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents we can then expand its capabilities further to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past and those to be discovered in the future. We discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.Comment: Revisions since previous draft. Now submitted to Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

The ocean’s role in the transient response of climate to abrupt greenhouse gas forcing

We study the role of the ocean in setting the patterns and timescale of the transient response of the climate to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. A novel framework is set out which involves integration of an ocean-only model in which the anthropogenic temperature signal is forced from the surface by anomalous downwelling heat fluxes and damped at a rate controlled by a ‘climate feedback’ parameter. We observe a broad correspondence between the evolution of the anthropogenic temperature (T[subscript anthro]) in our simplified ocean-only model and that of coupled climate models perturbed by a quadrupling of CO[subscript 2]. This suggests that many of the mechanisms at work in fully coupled models are captured by our idealized ocean-only system. The framework allows us to probe the role of the ocean in delaying warming signals in the Southern Ocean and in the northern North Atlantic, and in amplifying the warming signal in the Arctic. By comparing active and passive temperature-like tracers we assess the degree to which changes in ocean circulation play a role in setting the distribution and evolution of T[subscript anthro]. The background ocean circulation strongly influences the large-scale patterns of ocean heat uptake and storage, such that T[subscript anthro] is governed by an advection/diffusion equation and weakly damped to the atmosphere at a rate set by climate feedbacks. Where warming is sufficiently small, for example in the Southern Ocean, changes in ocean circulation play a secondary role. In other regions, most noticeably in the North Atlantic, changes in ocean circulation induced by T[subscript anthro] are central in shaping the response.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction ProgramMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global ChangeJames S. McDonnell Foundation (Postdoctoral Fellowship